The Numbers That Count

Hey Everyone!! :-)

Today, I'd like to point out what should be obvious, but apparently isn't. With the holidays over and primary season upon us, there's a lot of talk about "electability." But one thing people seem to forget is who is electable depends entirely on who bothers to vote.

The arguments I keep hearing for establishment sell-outs like Biden and Buttigieg is that even if they have no good ideas and don't want to actually fight for any legislation that will help regular Americans, at least they'll appeal to more people...or at least more people will find them less objectionable than they might find other candidates. The problem is, it's not a matter of who they appeal to or who doesn't absolutely hate them; it's a matter of who actually casts a vote for them.

Winning elections isn't just about making people like you; it's about motivating people enough to put forth the effort to vote for you. It's about exciting people and making them want to get involved. And it's about which people you do that for. And, remember, in the US, you only get to cast your vote for your top choice; there's no ranked-choice voting. So even if people like you and might vote for you, if there's someone else they'd rather vote for, it doesn't matter if they'd also vote for you. Because they can only vote for one person.

So, if you're talking about the candidates who will motivate racist, white people to vote, Biden and Buttigieg might accomplish that. They are both white and they both have a history of backing racist policies that disenfranchise people of color. But in the 2020 US presidential election, there is no candidate on the Democratic side racist enough to lure racist, white voters away from Trump. Those same voters might have voted for Biden or Buttigieg in other elections, but not in that one.

And establishment sell-outs, like Biden and Buttigieg, won't motivate the progressive base to go out and vote. Wag your finger all you like, it won't change anything. If you want to motivate the people who vote for Democrats to get their asses out of their chairs and into the voting booths, you have to offer them a candidate worth voting for. And neither Biden nor Buttigieg, with their corporately-funded candidacies and do-nothing policy positions, do that.

There are more people who would vote for a candidate other than Trump than there are who would vote for Trump. The polls will tell you that; he has never polled higher than the low forties, and that was at the absolute peak of his popularity. This means that between 60 and 70 percent of voters would prefer someone else. The trick is getting those people to vote. And if all the Democrats offer is Republican-lite, why would they expect anyone who doesn't want to vote for a Republican to show up?

Basically, and this is the part that really shouldn't need to be explained, if you run Republican-lite, Republicans voters are the only ones who show up to vote, and they vote for the Republican. After all, if you're a Republican voter, why dick around with a pale imitation when you can have the real thing? If Democrats want to win elections, they have to convince progressives and independents to show up and vote. And that won't happen if the only choices are Republican and Semi-Republican.

So, sure, a less progressive candidate might get more Republican voters to the polls, but the overwhelming majority of them will be voting for Trump. Which not only doesn't help Democrats win, it makes it harder for them to win. History proves that progressives and independents will only bother to show up to vote if there's a progressive candidate for them to vote for, and those are the voters Democrats need to convince to cast their ballots. Get mad about it if you want, but denying reality won't win elections. A strong, progressive candidate with a bold vision for change and a decades-long track record of championing regular Americans will draw progressives and independents to the polls in droves. And that's when Democrats win.

The bottom line here is that elections are about numbers. And the only numbers that count are the ballots in the ballot boxes at the end of Election Day. So, like it or not, winning elections is about who you excite enough to show up to vote and who stays home. If disaffected Trump-voters stay home because they don't like the Democratic candidate, I'm fine with that. Because then the only ballots in those boxes will be from people who want to make the changes this country needs to make in order to truly realize the greatness that until now has only been potential. And that's the candidate who will win. Peace!